The United States, the third most visited country globally, is experiencing a projected decline in international tourist arrivals.

After welcoming approximately 80 million visitors last year, a new forecast from Tourism Economics predicts a decrease of 9.4% in 2024, a concerning trend compared to earlier forecasts of a 5% decline.

This change comes in the wake of evolving political and cultural dynamics that are reshaping perceptions of the U.S. as a travel destination.

In 2023, the major contributors to U.S. tourism were its diverse cities and attractions, ranging from the iconic skylines of New York and San Francisco to historical locales in New England and vibrant cultural hubs like New Orleans and Miami.

However, recent geopolitical events and domestic policies are now influencing international travel decisions.

Notably, tourists from Canada are expected to decline by 20%, significantly impacting border states such as New York and Michigan, as well as popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada, and Florida.

The American Tourism Association has raised alarms over reduced travel interest, particularly from Canadian visitors.

Projections indicate that even a decrease of 10% in Canadian tourism could result in a loss of two million visitors and $2.1 billion in expenditure, potentially affecting 14,000 jobs across the sector.

Air Canada has reported a 10% reduction in bookings to the U.S. for the period from April to September, while further analysis noted a 23% decline in travel demand compared to the previous year.

The notion of an ‘anti-tourism effect’ has emerged, attributed to political decisions and controversies surrounding the administration of former President Donald Trump.

This encompasses perceptions of U.S. foreign policy and domestic stances that may deter potential visitors from allied nations.

Additionally, travelers from China, Africa, Asia, and Central America are reported to be declining in numbers as international tourists gravitate towards destinations perceived as offering more straightforward entry processes and fewer political tensions.

Statistics reveal a notable impact on the future landscape of U.S. tourism, with forecasts suggesting billions of dollars less in foreign visitor spending.

In 2024, international tourism had surged by 9.1%, making the anticipated downturn particularly striking.

Overall losses related to the decline in international tourism could reach an estimated $64 billion in 2025.

As the cancellation of planned conferences and events continues alongside individual travel downturns, concerns arise about the future attendance at major forthcoming events, including the Ryder Cup in 2025, the FIFA World Cup in 2026, and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028. Delays in visa processing and fears surrounding visa rejections further complicate the outlook for international visitors to the United States.