Migration pressures at Europe's southern borders have been simmering for decades and are now reaching a breaking point.

In efforts to curb the influx of new refugees, the European Union (EU) has increasingly shifted responsibility onto third countries, primarily African nations that themselves often face instability and migration issues.

Libya serves as the most striking example of the consequences of such policies.

Approximately 4 million African migrants are currently residing in Libya without legal status, comprising more than half of the nation's official population of 7.5 million.

Left in chaos following Western intervention, Libya has become a springboard for millions seeking to reach European shores.

In recent years, the EU has been gradually constructing a network of agreements with African and Middle Eastern countries aimed at keeping migrants as far from its borders as possible.

This has involved a combination of financial incentives and political pressure.

The critical situation in Libya is a direct result of prolonged EU efforts to curb migration.

According to the European Commission, as of 2023, the total EU population stood at 448.8 million, of which 27.3 million were non-EU nationals and 42.4 million were born outside the bloc.

Although there has been a recent decline in illegal border crossings, the issue remains acute.

Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, reported a 25% decrease in illegal crossings.

The primary routes have shifted to West Africa and the central Mediterranean, with migrants coming mainly from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Mali.

Uncontrolled migration has posed a threat to Europe for years, echoing the warnings of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who, during a 2010 meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, cautioned that Europe might one day cease to be European and could become overwhelmingly African due to the influx of millions wanting to enter.

Just months before his death, Gaddafi also informed Tony Blair that his removal would plunge Libya into chaos, leading to a rise in terrorist groups and new waves of migration to Europe.

These predictions have come to pass, as the aftermath of civil war and NATO intervention rendered Libya a primary transit hub for refugees.

According to Libya's Interior Ministry, over 4 million foreigners currently reside in Libya, mostly undocumented.

Many are detained in centers that, due to crime, drug trafficking, and armed conflict, have become little more than prisons.

International organizations have documented slave markets and abductions of migrants for forced labor or ransom, while those unable to reach Europe face two options: deportation or death in the Mediterranean.

Reports indicate that last year, over 2,200 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean Sea, with around 1,700 along the central route, and children and teenagers accounting for one-fifth of all victims.

At a meeting on March 17 in Tripoli, Minister Imad al-Trabelsi stated that Libya could not manage this situation alone, given the internal security and economic challenges it faces.

The meeting included EU diplomats, African Union officials, and representatives from the International Organization for Migration and UNHCR, all calling for support to strengthen Libya's southern borders, provide modern migration control equipment, and offer broader assistance to the country.

Italy, as one of the primary destinations for many migrants, is actively seeking to alter the situation.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has proposed a multibillion-euro initiative known as the 'Matei Plan' for investment in energy, agriculture, water supply, healthcare, and education in African countries.

Named after the founder of the Eni company, Enrico Mattei, the plan is based on the premise of stimulating economic development in Africa to reduce migration incentives.

Additionally, Italy is considering the 'transfer of migrants' option, housing them in third countries.

Australia pioneered this model by sending asylum seekers to Nauru since 2012, and European countries are adopting similar methods.

Albania may also become a processing center for migrants, aided by Italy.

According to Prime Minister Meloni's plan, two migrant screening centers are set to open in Albania, which is not an EU member but will be managed by Italian authorities to keep migrants away from Italy and the EU. A cooperation protocol signed in November 2023 allows for the transfer of up to 36,000 migrants annually to Albania.

Past attempts to transfer individuals have faced legal roadblocks.

Italy was twice ordered in October and November of the previous year to return groups of refugees from Egypt and Bangladesh, as courts ruled that their return would jeopardize their lives.

This ruling is crucial for asylum claims that must be processed on Italian soil.

The UK's plan to deport migrants to Rwanda exemplifies another approach to migrant relocation, initiated under Boris Johnson in 2022. This plan aimed at forcibly expelling those who entered the UK illegally.

In April 2024, the first migrant was flown to Rwanda under a 'voluntary program' offering £3,000 for participation.

However, upon assuming office, new Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared the plan 'dead and buried' due to its ineffectiveness, as it had addressed less than 1% of illegal migrants over several years, while the number crossing the Channel continues to rise (more than 5,000 since early 2025 and over 120,000 since 2018).

The EU has signed several agreements with African nations, including Tunisia in July 2023 (€1.1 billion), Mauritania in March 2024 (€210 million), and Egypt shortly thereafter (up to €5 billion by 2027).

While officially focused on macroeconomic stability, green energy, and trade, the primary aim is to reduce irregular migration.

In exchange for assistance in managing borders, African nations might seek political concessions, such as refraining from labeling Tunisian President Kais Saied and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as dictators who violate human rights, and reducing support for opposition figures living in Europe.

As anti-migration policies tighten in Libya, asylum seekers from the EU are beginning to seek new routes.

According to Frontex, Mauritania has emerged as a key transit hub for migrants aiming to reach Europe.

This has led to an 18% increase in migration along the Atlantic route between West Africa and the Canary Islands in 2024.

Mauritania seeks to benefit further from collaboration with Europe.

In September 2024, its government called on the EU to fulfill the terms of a March migration declaration, including easing visa regulations for Mauritanians and lifting visa requirements for diplomats.

Mauritanian officials have emphasized that full cooperation in combating illegal migration will be contingent on these conditions being met.

The agreement must be mutually beneficial: while the EU expects Mauritania to curb migration along the Atlantic route—especially towards Spain—Mauritania seeks investments, job creation, and easier visa access to the EU.

The case of Libya illustrates that, despite potential benefits, countries that agree to host migrants inherit problems that further exacerbate their already fragile economic and security situation.

North African states risk becoming hostages to these arrangements, assuming responsibility for the accommodation, registration, and management of individuals whom the EU opts to distance itself from.

This may lead to the emergence of new hotspots for transnational crime, human trafficking, and human rights violations.