Economic Impact of Domestic Crisis on Serbian Companies
A recent survey reveals significant operational challenges across various sectors in Serbia due to ongoing socio-political unrest.
Nearly half of the 378 companies surveyed by the Serbian Chamber of Commerce reported experiencing direct and substantial impacts on their operations due to the prevailing crisis in the country.
This crisis, coupled with market disruptions caused by protests, uncertainty, and shifts in consumer behavior, is affecting both large and small domestic and foreign firms across all sectors of the Serbian economy.
The survey included a variety of businesses, many of which are oriented towards international markets.
Participants acknowledged the broader consequences of the ongoing crisis on the national economy, with companies serving primarily the domestic market feeling the greatest strain.
Concerns are mounting regarding the future state of the domestic market, which is already causing hesitation among foreign partners.
Investment timelines are being delayed, and critical business periods are being missed, with recovery becoming increasingly difficult without a return to normalcy.
Companies involved in the survey employ a total of 111,400 individuals and report revenues of approximately 1.8 billion dinars, according to their most recent financial statements.
Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, commented that the Serbian economy is already suffering serious consequences from events on the domestic social and political scene.
This impact is extending beyond the service sector, which is traditionally first affected during crises, to manufacturing sectors that are seeing declines in guest numbers, orders, sales, and revenues due to logistical issues, interruptions in education, and communication challenges resulting from protests, postponed investments, and uncertainties concerning future business both domestically and internationally.
The tourism, trade, and transportation sectors have been hardest hit in the last four months, according to the survey's findings.
Over 70 percent of tourism sector respondents reported operational difficulties, with a third experiencing a decrease in business indicators—including tourist arrivals, overnight stays—ranging from 10 to 40 percent, and some reporting drops exceeding 40 percent.
Some companies have even reported halving their visitors compared to the same period last year.
Cancellations and delays of both domestic and international guest arrivals are widespread, impacting school trips that typically occur this time of year, with travel agencies expressing concern over reduced vacation interest due to uncertainty and fear, potentially leading to a significantly poorer tourist season.
Čadež noted that this issue extends to all companies within the supply chain, from food producers to transportation providers.
He cited ongoing logistical challenges, including canceled transportation routes and bypasses due to protests, contributing to a sharp decline in passenger numbers for bus transport.
For many companies, including those that transport goods, reduced order volumes have been reported.
The survey indicated that 57 percent of retail companies are already experiencing negative effects, reporting a drop in sales between 10 and 40 percent.
The impact of boycotts is not limited to large retail chains but also affects small traders and businesses, where every dinar counts.
Retailers of all types, including food, pharmaceuticals, clothing, and furniture, are facing diminished sales due to buyer abstention, whether from location near protest routes or pressure from demonstrators to close shops.
Wholesalers in electronic devices, sanitary equipment, and construction materials are equally affected, with retailers noticing a trend of customers only purchasing essential items amid prevailing uncertainty.
On the manufacturing side, many producers cited increased signs of illiquidity and collection problems that were previously not encountered, even during the pandemic.
Construction companies are increasingly reporting slowdowns in their business activities, an alarming trend as this sector has historically been a growth driver.
Approximately one third of respondents from the construction industry report adverse impacts, and almost all 45 surveyed companies exhibit at least minor challenges.
Meanwhile, construction firms continue to face logistical and daily operational difficulties, including delays in material deliveries and waiting on public tenders and administrative processes for required documentation.
Demand for residential units has reportedly declined by as much as 70 percent for some companies, with completed projects winding down and minimal new undertakings due to a cautious approach to starting new building projects during the current turmoil.
The president of the Chamber has also highlighted serious concerns regarding instances where companies, such as a significant South Serbian construction materials exporter, face threats of factory blockades tied to alleged environmental issues despite routine inspections showing compliance.
The processing industry is grappling with a pronounced reduction in foreign demand, with 63 percent of respondents in livestock production reporting negative business effects while noting a 20 percent drop in export revenue.
The immediate domestic market also reflects considerable declines, with about 20 percent of companies in the grain and food industry admitting losses, particularly among suppliers dependent on the school market affected by student absences.
The textile industry has also reported substantial negative impacts, with 65 percent of surveyed companies indicating a downturn in sales and payment delays from international business partners.
In the metal, electrical, rubber, and plastic industries, major exporters faced already diminished orders from European automobile manufacturers prior to the recent domestic developments.
They now face domestic sales drops of 5 to 20 percent, prompting them to reduce production volumes and workforce numbers, with some even considering shutting down operations in Serbia.
The creative sector is also suffering, with dwindling cinema attendance and a decrease in advertising by as much as 40 percent, alongside postponement of up to 50 percent of planned investments due to security risks.
While a majority of business operators express resilience—74 percent remain optimistic about a swift return to normalcy and still hope to execute planned investments—some reported that operational plans, including investment in facilities and transport, have been shelved pending stabilization of the situation.
Sectors facing the most significant hold-ups include tourism and transportation, also experiencing a measured reluctance among construction companies to commence new building activities until clarity returns.
Many local and foreign investments are currently on hold, contributing to growing operational challenges that cannot be easily remedied.
Potential investors have expressed hesitation, with various companies indicating that ongoing protests have disrupted their plans to invest in Serbia.
It is reported that 25 to 30 percent of potential foreign investors have paused negotiations due to present circumstances.
However, firms already invested in Serbia are progressing with their projects amid the risks and uncertainties associated with the current challenges.
With ongoing unrest, a significant portion of surveyed firms anticipates further downturns in business over the next three to six months.
Responses reflecting expectations of declines in operations, potential wage reductions, and layoffs were prevalent, particularly among tourism, trade, and construction sectors.
Retailers foresee additional sales declines between 20 and 30 percent, while builders express concerns about reducing project scopes, particularly concerning government-financed developments.
The reported situation presents considerable anxiety among businesses, especially with many recognizing the substantial burden of external issues impacting the economy, and 45 percent of respondents are preparing for serious challenges triggered by factors beyond their control.
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