Germany faces a pressing need for workers, with an estimated demand for at least 400,000 annually.

The so-called ‘Western Balkans Regulation,’ which permits individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia to work in Germany without formal qualifications, may soon see significant restrictions under a new government led by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Friedrich Merz.

Established in 2015, the regulation aimed at reducing the frequency of unsuccessful asylum applications from these nations and enabling regular access to the labor market.

With the introduction of this regulation, the number of asylum requests from the Western Balkans has reportedly decreased significantly.

Workers from these regions often find employment in healthcare, construction, hospitality, and various service sectors.

Under the previous administration, the “traffic light coalition” of Olaf Scholz's government, the regulation was not only extended but also saw an increase in work visa quotas from 25,000 to 50,000 per year.

Negotiations for the new coalition government involving the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are currently underway.

Notably, a recent working group document on labor and social issues lacked any mention of the Western Balkans Regulation, which surprised observers.

Earlier draft proposals suggested a desire to revert to original immigration limits, reducing the number to 25,000 individuals per year.

The CDU has not commented on the ongoing negotiations, and the SPD did not provide a response by the time of publication.

Economic expert Herbert Briker from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has assessed the impacts of labor immigration from the Western Balkans.

He warned that abolishing the regulation would not be advisable, highlighting that around 95% of these immigrants remain employed three to four years after their arrival in Germany.

This high employment rate correlates with the fact that their residency permits are tied to their employment status.

Briker noted that this demographic performs exceptionally well in the labor market, often outpacing other immigrant groups as well as many native workers in terms of employment success.

Additionally, these workers rarely rely on social welfare programs, and their skill levels are generally higher than anticipated.

Despite the lack of formal qualifications required by the Western Balkans Regulation, a significant proportion of these migrants engage in skilled occupations.

Briker emphasized that regular employment among this group benefits the economy, companies, and tax revenues.

As Germany grapples with demographic changes leading to an annual loss of 400,000 workers, he cautioned that further constraining effective migration pathways could exacerbate existing labor shortages.

On an alternative note, political scientist Holger Kolb from the Advisory Council for Integration and Migration indicated that the circumstances for labor migration from the Western Balkans have improved since the regulation's inception.

He pointed out the establishment of better legal frameworks for work-related immigration, such as the ‘Partner Program for Qualification Recognition,’ which helps individuals gain employment in Germany while simultaneously seeking recognition for their qualifications.

This program allows workers to qualify for permanent residency in Germany after three years, down from five, provided their qualifications are recognized.

Kolb noted that family reunification for skilled workers has also been facilitated.

Unlike Briker, Kolb supports the idea of reducing quotas for the Western Balkans, arguing that labor migration decisions should focus on an individual’s abilities rather than their country of origin.

He contended that the current regulation contradicts this principle.