On May 14, 2025, a Russian military aircraft, identified as a Su-35, reportedly violated Estonian airspace while allegedly responding to a distress situation involving a Russian oil tanker, JAGUAR, flagged under Gabon.

The incident prompted the Estonian Ministry of Defence to accuse Russia of breaching its airspace and to deliver a protest note to the Russian ambassador.

Eyewitness accounts and media reports provide differing narratives regarding the incident.

Estonian media sources noted that the violation occurred near the Juminda Peninsula, lasting less than a minute.

Authorities stated that the Russian aircraft did not have a flight plan filed, its transponder was turned off, and it lacked a two-way radio communication channel with Estonian air traffic control at the time of the breach.

Conversely, a Russian news outlet claimed that the incident was precipitated by an attempt by the Estonian Navy, supported by Polish air forces, to intercept the tanker in international waters as it navigated towards a Russian port.

Reports detailed that initial efforts by Estonia involved urging the tanker to enter territorial waters, transitioning to more aggressive maneuvers, which allegedly included attempting to intimidate the vessel and deploy troops via helicopter.

Estonia denied the Russian assertion, maintaining that it was Portuguese F-16 fighters currently stationed in Omari as part of NATO’s Baltic air policing mission that responded to the situation, rather than Polish MiG-29s, as claimed by Russian sources.

This incident marks the first breach of Estonian airspace by Russian military aircraft this year.

The operation of the tanker itself was significant in the context of ongoing sanctions against Russia, as the so-called 'shadow fleet' often comprises older, poorly maintained vessels operating under ambiguous ownership to transport Russian oil and contraband globally, aimed at circumventing international sanctions.

The European Union has recently intensified sanctions against this shadow fleet, including over 200 new vessels registered in its fleet, aimed at disrupting illegal oil exports.

These sanctions also targeted companies and individuals involved in facilitating the operations of these vessels, enhancing trade restrictions on dual-use goods as part of ongoing enforcement measures against the Russian military establishment.

The geopolitical implications of this incident are exacerbated by the broader context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where heightened military activity and aggressive posturing have become increasingly common in recent weeks.