Jamie Dimon urges regulators to consider a financial strategy shift to avoid market destabilization.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has voiced significant concerns regarding the U.S. bond market, indicating that it may collapse under the burden of the nation’s increasing debt.
During a recent statement, Dimon warned regulators, stating, "You will see a blowup in the bond market." He added, "I’m telling you this is going to happen, and you’re going to panic.
I won’t panic.
We will be fine."
This warning highlights the growing anxiety on Wall Street regarding the escalating national debt levels, coinciding with discussions in Congress about President Trump's proposed budget, which is expected to substantially increase the federal deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office had already forecasted that U.S. debt as a share of GDP would exceed its post-World War II peak in the coming years, even before this budget was debated.
Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are experiencing pressure due to fiscal concerns, with the yield on 30-year Treasuries trading around 5%, down from slightly above 4% at the beginning of 2024. Furthermore, credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating this month from AAA.
The market for U.S. government bonds has expanded from approximately $5 trillion in 2008 to $29 trillion today, a growth spurred by tax cuts and increased spending—especially during the
COVID-19 pandemic.
It remains the largest and most liquid bond market globally, historically benefiting from the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
However, as debt levels have climbed, demand for U.S. Treasuries has waned.
Foreign investors have increasingly retreated from the market over the past decade, a trend exacerbated by Trump’s tariff policies.
Dimon also pointed out that rising geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and growing debt levels across the globe signify that "tectonic plates" of the global economy are shifting.
During remarks at the Reagan National Economic Forum in California, he noted, "I simply don’t know if there will be a crisis in six months or in six years," urging the government to alter the debt trajectory and calling for regulators to ease constraints on banks to enhance their capacity to engage in bond trading.
He stated, "I think we can do better across the board, including on this, simply by changing and modifying some of these rules and regulations." His comments echo sentiments expressed earlier in the week by John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs, who characterized the increasing U.S. deficit as "somewhat concerning" and warned that its impact on the bond market poses the "largest risk to macroeconomics at present."